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Wall Street can be wise to sharpen the estimates of the winnings.
S&P 500 (^GSPC) Estimates of consensus yields currently require 9% growth on an annual basis this year, followed by 14.3% growth in 2026.
For a long time markets Strategist Adam Parker At Trivariate Research believes that these figures are much too high, all things are being considered.
“We are expecting more than normal downward EPS revisions”, Parker, that kept The leading role of the US stock strategist in Sanford Bernstein and Morgan Stanley, said in a new note on Thursday.
Parker gets out for the potential estimate of the Wall Street win. He thinks that the income will rise only 1% this year and 4% next year.
He warned that the fine for companies that miss income estimates, partly caused by too high analyst forecasts, could be serious.
Watch: How this CEO deals with rates for making beer
The recent fine for revisions of more than 5% was hard, Parker said, with the average fine in the last two months in the fourth percentile of the past 25 years.
Recent companies that have been punished in the past month for warnings are Economic Bellwegers Delta (DAL) and Nike (NKE). Shares have been lost 13% and 25% respectively in the past month.
“We think that the consensus numbers should be substantially reduced and the fine for downward revisions has been hard,” Parker added. “This combination keeps us careful with so many companies that are about to report the income in the next two weeks.”
The risks for company profits this year are two -fold, with one the by -product of the other.
Firstly, the spread approach of the Trump administration of its rate policy is paralyzing the decision -making of companies and causes demand fluctuations.
On April 9, the Trump government announced a 90-day break for all mutual rates, except China. Rates for one of the most important trading partners of the US now amount to 145% – the sum of a mutual rate of 125% and 20% that Trump previously levied.
A cross -line task is still applied to all other input.
Read more: What Trump’s rates mean for the economy and your wallet
On Wednesday, China indicated that it is ready to resume trade interviews with the US – when Washington shows respect and appoints a trusted negotiator.
The administration further refined its tariff plans on 11 April.
The White House gave a rule that saved smartphones, semiconductors and other electronics from mutual rates, in particular the stricter rates for Chinese goods. American customs and border protection said the goods would be excluded from Trump’s 10% global rate and the 125% mutual Chinese rates.
