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Bitcoin (BTC) dropped abruptly last week, sliding from a local top from $ 110,000 to $ 103,000. At the time of the press, BTC hovered about $ 103,707 – a decrease in 3.88% in seven days.
This sudden shift in Bitcoin’s direction left analysts talking across from cryptocurrencies.
One of these analysts is Cryptoquant’s Axel Adlerwho suggested a potential drop to $ 92,000, citing a overheated market.
According to Adler, Bitcoin -O’s Net UTXO supply ratio has now flashed four direct sales signals. This is with the visible fall in the UTXO ratio – a combination that usually signals the overheated market.
Source: Cryptoquant
During this market phase, profit takes place and demand begins to lag behind.
When these two events occur, they indicate that a large proportion of coins switched to unrealized profit, thus reducing the incentive to the Hodl and increasing the potential of taking profits.
Source: Cryptoquant
The data on the chain support Adler’s thesis. The net unrealized profit of bitcoin fell to 0.553 – the lowest in weeks.
The drop here suggests that most owners currently have fewer gains than before. Thus, profit margins dipped, signaling the weakness of the market.
In fact, the investors who bought BTC between $ 104 and $ 112,000 are now underwater.
These two scenarios of risk market capitulation because investors start panic, causing further side. As such, Adler believed that at the moment, the market needed serious reset.
Source: Cryptoquant
The said market reset will mean several things for Bitcoin’s future prices movement.
First, prevailing conditions could see BTC traded aside between $ 95 and $ 105,000 until the UTXO supply ratio stabilized about 0.85 – 0.9.
This will happen, signaling strong cooling on the market after a series of sales signals. Alternatively, a sharper withdrawal to $ 92,000 can be played first, mitigating the current overheated structure.
In any of these cases, we will see that Bitcoin falls below $ 100,000 until the market has been cooled again.
In addition to weak measuring data, the ratio of sales sales sales remained negative for four days.
Source: Cryptoquant
This signals high market sales activity. If the sales pressure continues, we will see that BTC falls to $ 101,488. If this support fails to retain, the fall below 100k is inevitable, and the next support is around $ 98,890.